ICT PENETRATION, DIGITAL TAX ADMINISTRATION, AND NON-OIL REVENUE PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA (2005–2025)
Abstract
Nigeria’s persistent dependence on oil revenue has heightened concerns regarding fiscal sustainability and the effectiveness of efforts aimed at strengthening non-oil revenue mobilization through digital tax administration. This study examined the relationship between ICT penetration, digital tax administration, and non-oil revenue performance in Nigeria over the period 2005–2025. Specifically, the study investigated the effects of internet penetration and mobile cellular subscriptions on non-oil revenue while controlling for inflation and GDP growth. Annual time-series data were analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root tests, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing framework. The results revealed the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between ICT penetration and non-oil revenue performance. A major finding shows that mobile cellular subscriptions and non-oil revenue are co-integrated in the long run, although the direct effects of both internet penetration and mobile subscriptions on non-oil revenue were positive but statistically insignificant. Among other findings, inflation emerged as the only statistically significant macroeconomic determinant of non-oil revenue performance, whereas GDP growth exerted no significant influence. The study concludes that digital connectivity alone is insufficient to generate substantial improvements in non-oil revenue mobilization without complementary institutional, compliance, and enforcement mechanisms. The study recommends that the Federal Inland Revenue Service strengthen the integration of digital tax platforms with taxpayer identification and digital transaction databases to enhance tax-base expansion and revenue collection efficiency, among other measures.
Keywords: ICT Penetration; Digital Tax Administration; Non-Oil Revenue; ARDL; Nigeria
Emmanuel N. Achumie and Ruth C. Nzegwu
Department of Commerce and Cooperative Education, School of Business Education, Federal College of Education (Technical), Umunze